Why Are 1 in 6 North Texas Home Sales Falling Through, and How Do You Bulletproof Yours?

Ever wonder why some homes go under contract, then fall apart a few weeks later? Right now that’s not the exception. It’s becoming the pattern.

I’m Tim Lockhart with Keller Williams Realty. Today I want to talk about something every buyer and seller in this market needs to understand: why deals are falling out of contract at a much higher rate than we’re used to, and how to protect yourself so it doesn’t happen to you.

If you’re planning a move, especially on a tight timeline like a military PCS, stick with me. This could save you months of stress, thousands of dollars, and a lot of uncertainty.

What’s Actually Happening in the Market?

According to recent research, about 13 to 14% of home-sale agreements nationally have been falling through. That doesn’t sound extreme until you compare it to what we’ve grown used to over the past few years.

Here in North Texas, the numbers are running even higher, closer to 15 to 17%. That means roughly 1 out of every 6 deals isn’t making it to the closing table.

That’s a big deal. So why is it happening? There are three main pressure points.

1. Inspections and repair negotiations

This is the biggest one right now. What used to be a formality has turned into a battleground. Buyers are more cautious, more selective, and a lot of them are using the inspection period to renegotiate hard, or just walk away.

Sometimes it’s a major issue. A lot of the time it’s something minor that triggers concern, and the buyer starts second-guessing the whole purchase. If the seller isn’t ready for that moment, the deal can fall apart fast.

2. Financing

This is where things get tricky. Buyers get deep into the process, and then something changes. Maybe the monthly payment starts to feel too high. Maybe underwriting finds an issue. Sometimes it’s something the buyer did without realizing the consequences.

If you’re under contract on a home, don’t make any major financial moves. Don’t buy a car. Don’t finance furniture. Don’t open new credit accounts. Gary Keller’s book The Shift calls these the “Seven Don’ts of Mortgage Funding,” and one of the biggest risks is buyers unintentionally disqualifying themselves right before closing. I’ve seen it happen. Everything moving along fine, and then right at the finish line, the loan falls apart.

3. Buyer leverage

We’re not in an extreme buyer’s market, but buyers have more options than they did a few years ago, more time to think things over, and less pressure to push forward if something doesn’t feel right. So more of them are walking away.

The real takeaway: getting under contract is no longer the goal. Getting to the closing table is.

Where Does AI Fit, and Where Does It Fall Short?

A lot of buyers and sellers are turning to AI tools like ChatGPT, Claude, Gemini, and Perplexity before they ever call an agent. I think AI is a great tool, and I use it myself. But there’s a real difference between using AI as a tool and treating it like your strategist.

These systems are Large Language Models. They’re trained on huge amounts of information and built to produce answers that sound confident and well-reasoned. The catch is that they’re optimized to sound coherent, not necessarily to be objectively right, and the way you word a question changes the answer you get.

Ask a question from a buyer’s point of view and the AI tends to validate the buyer’s concerns. Ask it the same situation from the seller’s side and it may validate the seller instead. That’s confirmation bias. It’s leaning toward whatever the question seems to assume.

In real estate that gets risky fast. Two people on the same transaction can ask the same basic question and walk away with opposite conclusions.

AI can model a market. It can’t model a deal. It doesn’t know how stressed a military family is trying to make a PCS deadline. It doesn’t know if a seller is trying to avoid carrying two mortgages, or if a buyer’s parents are quietly helping with the down payment. It doesn’t know about the marital situations, job changes, or family dynamics shaping someone’s decision. And it definitely doesn’t know the smell inside a house, the deferred maintenance hiding under fresh paint, or the fact that three serious buyers are already circling a property off market.

AI knows data. A seasoned agent understands context, and context is what holds deals together.

So use AI. Ask it questions. Research the market. Get informed. But when you’re making one of the largest financial decisions of your life, you need more than information. You need someone who can sit across the table, read the room, negotiate the repair amendment, calm everyone down, manage the timeline, and actually get the deal closed. That still takes a person.

How Do You Actually Bulletproof a Transaction?

It comes down to three things.

Get a pre-listing inspection. This changes everything. Instead of waiting for the buyer to find problems, you already know what’s there. You can fix the big stuff ahead of time and document it. Fewer surprises means fewer reasons for the deal to fall apart. It also strengthens your negotiating position, because now you can show the condition before and after. You’re not reacting to the inspection report. You’re controlling the story.

Get ahead of the big-ticket repairs. Roof, HVAC, foundation, plumbing, electrical. These are the things that scare buyers. Handle them up front and you remove the biggest objections before they ever come up.

Communicate constantly and set expectations early. One of the biggest issues Gary Keller points to in The Shift is breakdowns in communication between agents, lenders, and clients. When people don’t know what’s happening, they get nervous. When they get nervous, they start questioning the deal. Keeping everyone informed and moving forward is a big part of what I do on every transaction.

What Does This Mean for Military Families?

If you’re a military homeowner navigating a PCS move, the stakes are even higher. You don’t get to wait around for a deal to collapse and start over. You’re on a timeline. You’ve got orders. You’ve likely got a family counting on that transition going smoothly.

If your home falls out of contract, that’s not just an inconvenience. It can delay your move, create financial strain, and in some cases mean being separated from your family while everything gets sorted out.

This isn’t just about listing a home. It’s about engineering a smooth transition. That means doing everything possible up front, pre-inspections, strong buyer vetting, clear timelines, and constant communication, to avoid problems later. In this market, hope is not a strategy. Preparation is.

So What’s the Bottom Line?

Technology is changing real estate fast. AI tools are becoming part of the process. The market is shifting and transactions are getting more complicated, not less. But one thing hasn’t changed. People still need trusted guidance, real strategy, and someone who can spot trouble before it happens and navigate the emotional and financial side of a deal that no algorithm can fully see.

Whether you’re buying, selling, preparing for a military PCS move, or just trying to make sense of where this market is headed, let’s talk. I’ll help you put together a strategy that protects your timeline, your finances, and your peace of mind from day one all the way to closing.

If you have questions about your specific situation, call, text, or email me directly.